Under the background of the sharp drop in international crude oil prices, the current domestic refined oil prices have already exceeded international prices, and the downward adjustment is the trend of the times. The use of this opportunity to straighten out the refined oil price mechanism is a top priority and will enable the domestic oil refining industry to achieve long-term stable and healthy development. If the fuel tax is levied on schedule, it will have no material impact on the short-term performance of Sinopec Corp. and PetroChina, but it will have a major impact on major oil downstream industries such as automobiles and transportation.
In the short term, the introduction of fuel tax is an action that can stimulate the consumption of passenger cars. Its significance is no less than a direct reduction in oil prices, which in turn reduces the cost of use and thus stimulates sales of passenger cars. In the long run, if international crude oil futures Once prices return to high levels again, and domestic refined oil prices have strong expectations of rising prices, the added fuel tax will increase passenger car use costs. In short, the fuel tax is a double-edged sword for the consumption of passenger cars!
According to the most widespread fuel tax scheme outside the country, the cost of vehicles is slightly lower for trucks, and the cost of vehicles is slightly fluctuating for passenger cars, but it is basically the same. Taking into account passenger and freight transport, based on the principle of prudence, the impact of the short-term on the expressway is neutral and long-term is good.
As early as January of 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that China's refined oil pricing system adopted the “Crude Oil Cost Pricing Actâ€, which is based on the average of crude oil prices in Brent, Dubai, and Minas, plus refining The cost and appropriate profit margins as well as domestic tariffs, refined oil circulation fees, etc., together form the domestic benchmark retail price of refined oil products. However, taking into account the soaring international oil prices and the rising domestic CPI, the pace of reforms has been delayed.
However, the direction of domestic refined oil prices in line with international standards will not change. The domestic refined oil price system should make its response resources scarce, supply and demand, and cost factors. At present, international oil prices have fallen sharply, domestic refined oil prices have been significantly lower than the international level, and the call for price adjustment is on the rise. At the same time, the CPI fell and stabilized, and the inventory of the refinery in the previous period has also been digested. Therefore, it is the best time to push forward the reform.
Chemical Industry:
The distortions that favor the long-term development of the industry's long-term refined oil pricing mechanism will cause many serious social problems. As seen in the first half of the year, the oil refinery produces huge losses, and some refineries, especially local refineries, stop production and semi-discontinued. The supply of refined oil products has begun to stir up "oil shortages" in many places since the second half of last year.
At the same time, there is still some uncertainty in the international crude oil price trend in the latter period. Once the international crude oil price rebounds sharply, the chaotic situation in the first half of the year may reappear. The existing pricing mechanism will once again constrain the profitability of China’s oil refining industry. For countries, they are unwilling to see it.
In the long term, it will be an inevitable choice for the country and the people to realize the reform of pricing mechanism of refined oil as soon as possible so as to ensure that the oil refining industry in China will maintain a stable and reasonable profit level. We believe that if the profit level is too high, it will inevitably bring greater pressure on the downstream chemical basic industries, which is not conducive to the continued healthy development of the entire chemical industry chain; and if the profit level is too low, it will hurt the industry's own interests, and in the long run The development of the industry itself will also be limited, and downstream demand will not be met.
Previously, due to the market has always been because of the uncertainty of price control to China Petroleum, Sinopec, the value of the two groups have a discount, so if the smooth completion of the reform of refined oil price system, will surely promote the valuation of the two major groups of PetroChina, Sinopec More scientific and reasonable.
With the sharp decline in international oil prices, under the current pricing mechanism, the adjustment of refined oil prices lags behind. At present, domestic refined oil prices have already exceeded international levels. Therefore, the cut in oil prices will affect the profitability of the domestic oil refining industry in the short term. For the levy of fuel tax, Sinopec and PetroChina only deduct and pay fuel tax, and they cannot profit from it or increase profitability. Therefore, the introduction of fuel tax has a greater impact on the use of oil downstream industries such as automobiles and transportation. Big.
Passenger car industry:
The fuel tax is like a double-edged sword. The recent Development and Reform Commission may make major adjustments to the refined oil pricing mechanism and the implementation of the fuel tax reform. It is expected that the energy price reform will be launched in the form of a combination of “oil price drop†and “tax reformâ€. First of all, at present, the domestic product oil price ex-factory discounts the international crude oil futures price discount has exceeded the range of hitting the fold, the energy price reform is bound to change the price upside down phenomenon; Second, the fuel tax is an important policy to regulate energy consumption, from the price Levy can better regulate energy consumption. If the fuel tax policy is chosen at this specific point in time and in conjunction with the reform of the refined oil pricing mechanism, it will achieve the government's willingness to regulate refined oil consumption over the years, and on the other hand it will minimize the negative impact on vehicle consumption. . This will create a win-win situation between the government and consumers.
The National Development and Reform Commission revealed that the fuel tax rate will be between 30% and 50%. The implementation of the fuel tax policy will be accompanied by the cancellation of the road maintenance fee. After the analysis of different models, we first make a unified assumption, assuming that the daily trip is 50 kilometers, then the annual trip is 18,000 kilometers, and the annual road maintenance fee is 1,500 yuan.
Assuming that the oil price does not change at 6.2 yuan/liter, if only the fuel tax policy is implemented (the road maintenance fee is cancelled), then the cost of using various types of passenger vehicles will increase before the implementation of the fuel tax policy. In other words, the cancellation of the annual maintenance cost of about 1,500 yuan can not stop the increase in the cost of the implementation of the fuel tax.
Against the backdrop of high oil prices and rising prices, the negative effects of the fuel tax are fully apparent. In fact, the highest international crude oil futures price has reached US$145.18/barrel, and the highest ex-factory price of China's refined oil is only US$120/barrel converted to the U.S. dollar (if the impact of RMB appreciation continues to increase, the figure may actually be even lower). The highest international oil price still has a spread of nearly 14%. Let's consider the most extreme situation: Assuming that the domestic refined oil price will be raised again from tomorrow, the fuel tax rate will remain between 30% and 50%, and the road maintenance fee will be abolished, how will the use cost change? Under the premise of rising oil prices, even if the use of road maintenance costs is deducted, the rate of increase is still very large. This shows that under the premise of high oil prices and the possibility of further increase in oil prices, the cancellation of the road maintenance fee will be as insignificant as the blocking of the actual use cost. If the price of oil continues to rise in the future, the rate of increase in use costs will continue to increase with the increase in the fuel tax rate!
In the short term, under the strong expectations of the decline in international crude oil prices and the reduction of domestic refined oil prices, the introduction of fuel tax is a move that can stimulate passenger car consumption. Its significance is no less than a direct reduction in oil prices, resulting in lower use costs. This will stimulate sales of passenger cars. In the long term, if international crude oil futures prices return to high levels again, and domestic refined oil prices have strong expectations of rising prices, the added fuel tax will increase the cost of passenger vehicles and increase them. There is a positive correlation between the speed of the fuel and the fuel tax rate imposed. In general, the fuel tax is like a double-edged sword. In the process of falling oil prices, it will significantly reduce the use cost to promote passenger car consumption; but in the process of rising oil prices, With the continuous increase in fuel tax rates, the use of cost will increase!
highway:
The expansion of saturated roads is based on the most widely spread basic oil price of 5 yuan and the fuel tax rate of 30%-50%. At present, China's current average fuel consumption is 3.75 liters per 100 tons. There is a decrease. Such a program is conducive to the smooth transition of consumption habits, stimulates the growth of transportation demand, and has benefits in maintaining the stability of transportation demand and automobile consumption.
According to the currently widely spread oil price of 5 yuan and the fuel tax rate of 30%-50%, the freight demand will increase slightly by about 12%. However, the relationship between freight demand and the economy is closer, and the demand will not increase substantially because of the reduction in costs. Therefore, the overall demand for freight will remain stable.
According to the most widely spread basic oil price of 5 yuan and a fuel tax rate of 30%-50%, the fuel cost is basically the same after the introduction of fuel tax at an average level of 1 litre/100 person-km fuel consumption in China. When the tax rate is 30%, the cost drops by 4%. When the tax rate is 50%, the cost increases by 11%. Overall, the cost of vehicles before and after the launch remains stable.
According to the current widely spread oil price of 5 yuan and fuel tax rate of 30%-50%, the change in passenger demand is basically the same, with a range of -10% to 4%. The demand for road passenger transport is related to the distribution of cities, industrial structure, production development, and tourism. The impact of costs is only one part. The rumored fuel tax scheme has little effect on passenger traffic.
From the above analysis, we come to the following conclusions:
1. The impact of the short-term on the expressway is neutral. According to the most widespread fuel tax scheme, (1) for trucks, the cost of vehicles is slightly reduced; (2) for passenger vehicles, the cost of vehicles fluctuates slightly, but is basically the same; (3) comprehensive consideration of passengers Freight, based on the principle of prudence, has a neutral effect on the highway.
2, long-term has obvious advantages for the highway. (1) The fuel-saving advantages of the expressway will have a clear attraction to the traffic demand. According to the national classification standard for roads, with a class of roads as the base, the fuel consumption of cars on Type 2 roads is increased by 10%; on Grade 3 roads, it is 25% higher; on Grade 4 roads, it is 35% higher; in Category 5 45% higher on the road; 70% higher on Category 6 roads. This feature of the highway will inevitably make the vehicle give priority to it. The higher the oil price, the more obvious this trend is. (2) It has a significant capacity expansion effect on saturated highways. Due to the obvious fuel-saving effect of heavy-duty trucks and carts, in the long run, China's vehicle model structure will develop toward heavy and large-scale. After the change of light trucks to heavy buses and minibuses to large buses, the capacity for bicycle transportation has been improved, which has saved the time and space resources of highways. For road sections that are already saturated, it can increase the transportation capacity of goods and passengers and increase the company’s fee income. .
In the short term, the introduction of fuel tax is an action that can stimulate the consumption of passenger cars. Its significance is no less than a direct reduction in oil prices, which in turn reduces the cost of use and thus stimulates sales of passenger cars. In the long run, if international crude oil futures Once prices return to high levels again, and domestic refined oil prices have strong expectations of rising prices, the added fuel tax will increase passenger car use costs. In short, the fuel tax is a double-edged sword for the consumption of passenger cars!
According to the most widespread fuel tax scheme outside the country, the cost of vehicles is slightly lower for trucks, and the cost of vehicles is slightly fluctuating for passenger cars, but it is basically the same. Taking into account passenger and freight transport, based on the principle of prudence, the impact of the short-term on the expressway is neutral and long-term is good.
As early as January of 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that China's refined oil pricing system adopted the “Crude Oil Cost Pricing Actâ€, which is based on the average of crude oil prices in Brent, Dubai, and Minas, plus refining The cost and appropriate profit margins as well as domestic tariffs, refined oil circulation fees, etc., together form the domestic benchmark retail price of refined oil products. However, taking into account the soaring international oil prices and the rising domestic CPI, the pace of reforms has been delayed.
However, the direction of domestic refined oil prices in line with international standards will not change. The domestic refined oil price system should make its response resources scarce, supply and demand, and cost factors. At present, international oil prices have fallen sharply, domestic refined oil prices have been significantly lower than the international level, and the call for price adjustment is on the rise. At the same time, the CPI fell and stabilized, and the inventory of the refinery in the previous period has also been digested. Therefore, it is the best time to push forward the reform.
Chemical Industry:
The distortions that favor the long-term development of the industry's long-term refined oil pricing mechanism will cause many serious social problems. As seen in the first half of the year, the oil refinery produces huge losses, and some refineries, especially local refineries, stop production and semi-discontinued. The supply of refined oil products has begun to stir up "oil shortages" in many places since the second half of last year.
At the same time, there is still some uncertainty in the international crude oil price trend in the latter period. Once the international crude oil price rebounds sharply, the chaotic situation in the first half of the year may reappear. The existing pricing mechanism will once again constrain the profitability of China’s oil refining industry. For countries, they are unwilling to see it.
In the long term, it will be an inevitable choice for the country and the people to realize the reform of pricing mechanism of refined oil as soon as possible so as to ensure that the oil refining industry in China will maintain a stable and reasonable profit level. We believe that if the profit level is too high, it will inevitably bring greater pressure on the downstream chemical basic industries, which is not conducive to the continued healthy development of the entire chemical industry chain; and if the profit level is too low, it will hurt the industry's own interests, and in the long run The development of the industry itself will also be limited, and downstream demand will not be met.
Previously, due to the market has always been because of the uncertainty of price control to China Petroleum, Sinopec, the value of the two groups have a discount, so if the smooth completion of the reform of refined oil price system, will surely promote the valuation of the two major groups of PetroChina, Sinopec More scientific and reasonable.
With the sharp decline in international oil prices, under the current pricing mechanism, the adjustment of refined oil prices lags behind. At present, domestic refined oil prices have already exceeded international levels. Therefore, the cut in oil prices will affect the profitability of the domestic oil refining industry in the short term. For the levy of fuel tax, Sinopec and PetroChina only deduct and pay fuel tax, and they cannot profit from it or increase profitability. Therefore, the introduction of fuel tax has a greater impact on the use of oil downstream industries such as automobiles and transportation. Big.
Passenger car industry:
The fuel tax is like a double-edged sword. The recent Development and Reform Commission may make major adjustments to the refined oil pricing mechanism and the implementation of the fuel tax reform. It is expected that the energy price reform will be launched in the form of a combination of “oil price drop†and “tax reformâ€. First of all, at present, the domestic product oil price ex-factory discounts the international crude oil futures price discount has exceeded the range of hitting the fold, the energy price reform is bound to change the price upside down phenomenon; Second, the fuel tax is an important policy to regulate energy consumption, from the price Levy can better regulate energy consumption. If the fuel tax policy is chosen at this specific point in time and in conjunction with the reform of the refined oil pricing mechanism, it will achieve the government's willingness to regulate refined oil consumption over the years, and on the other hand it will minimize the negative impact on vehicle consumption. . This will create a win-win situation between the government and consumers.
The National Development and Reform Commission revealed that the fuel tax rate will be between 30% and 50%. The implementation of the fuel tax policy will be accompanied by the cancellation of the road maintenance fee. After the analysis of different models, we first make a unified assumption, assuming that the daily trip is 50 kilometers, then the annual trip is 18,000 kilometers, and the annual road maintenance fee is 1,500 yuan.
Assuming that the oil price does not change at 6.2 yuan/liter, if only the fuel tax policy is implemented (the road maintenance fee is cancelled), then the cost of using various types of passenger vehicles will increase before the implementation of the fuel tax policy. In other words, the cancellation of the annual maintenance cost of about 1,500 yuan can not stop the increase in the cost of the implementation of the fuel tax.
Against the backdrop of high oil prices and rising prices, the negative effects of the fuel tax are fully apparent. In fact, the highest international crude oil futures price has reached US$145.18/barrel, and the highest ex-factory price of China's refined oil is only US$120/barrel converted to the U.S. dollar (if the impact of RMB appreciation continues to increase, the figure may actually be even lower). The highest international oil price still has a spread of nearly 14%. Let's consider the most extreme situation: Assuming that the domestic refined oil price will be raised again from tomorrow, the fuel tax rate will remain between 30% and 50%, and the road maintenance fee will be abolished, how will the use cost change? Under the premise of rising oil prices, even if the use of road maintenance costs is deducted, the rate of increase is still very large. This shows that under the premise of high oil prices and the possibility of further increase in oil prices, the cancellation of the road maintenance fee will be as insignificant as the blocking of the actual use cost. If the price of oil continues to rise in the future, the rate of increase in use costs will continue to increase with the increase in the fuel tax rate!
In the short term, under the strong expectations of the decline in international crude oil prices and the reduction of domestic refined oil prices, the introduction of fuel tax is a move that can stimulate passenger car consumption. Its significance is no less than a direct reduction in oil prices, resulting in lower use costs. This will stimulate sales of passenger cars. In the long term, if international crude oil futures prices return to high levels again, and domestic refined oil prices have strong expectations of rising prices, the added fuel tax will increase the cost of passenger vehicles and increase them. There is a positive correlation between the speed of the fuel and the fuel tax rate imposed. In general, the fuel tax is like a double-edged sword. In the process of falling oil prices, it will significantly reduce the use cost to promote passenger car consumption; but in the process of rising oil prices, With the continuous increase in fuel tax rates, the use of cost will increase!
highway:
The expansion of saturated roads is based on the most widely spread basic oil price of 5 yuan and the fuel tax rate of 30%-50%. At present, China's current average fuel consumption is 3.75 liters per 100 tons. There is a decrease. Such a program is conducive to the smooth transition of consumption habits, stimulates the growth of transportation demand, and has benefits in maintaining the stability of transportation demand and automobile consumption.
According to the currently widely spread oil price of 5 yuan and the fuel tax rate of 30%-50%, the freight demand will increase slightly by about 12%. However, the relationship between freight demand and the economy is closer, and the demand will not increase substantially because of the reduction in costs. Therefore, the overall demand for freight will remain stable.
According to the most widely spread basic oil price of 5 yuan and a fuel tax rate of 30%-50%, the fuel cost is basically the same after the introduction of fuel tax at an average level of 1 litre/100 person-km fuel consumption in China. When the tax rate is 30%, the cost drops by 4%. When the tax rate is 50%, the cost increases by 11%. Overall, the cost of vehicles before and after the launch remains stable.
According to the current widely spread oil price of 5 yuan and fuel tax rate of 30%-50%, the change in passenger demand is basically the same, with a range of -10% to 4%. The demand for road passenger transport is related to the distribution of cities, industrial structure, production development, and tourism. The impact of costs is only one part. The rumored fuel tax scheme has little effect on passenger traffic.
From the above analysis, we come to the following conclusions:
1. The impact of the short-term on the expressway is neutral. According to the most widespread fuel tax scheme, (1) for trucks, the cost of vehicles is slightly reduced; (2) for passenger vehicles, the cost of vehicles fluctuates slightly, but is basically the same; (3) comprehensive consideration of passengers Freight, based on the principle of prudence, has a neutral effect on the highway.
2, long-term has obvious advantages for the highway. (1) The fuel-saving advantages of the expressway will have a clear attraction to the traffic demand. According to the national classification standard for roads, with a class of roads as the base, the fuel consumption of cars on Type 2 roads is increased by 10%; on Grade 3 roads, it is 25% higher; on Grade 4 roads, it is 35% higher; in Category 5 45% higher on the road; 70% higher on Category 6 roads. This feature of the highway will inevitably make the vehicle give priority to it. The higher the oil price, the more obvious this trend is. (2) It has a significant capacity expansion effect on saturated highways. Due to the obvious fuel-saving effect of heavy-duty trucks and carts, in the long run, China's vehicle model structure will develop toward heavy and large-scale. After the change of light trucks to heavy buses and minibuses to large buses, the capacity for bicycle transportation has been improved, which has saved the time and space resources of highways. For road sections that are already saturated, it can increase the transportation capacity of goods and passengers and increase the company’s fee income. .
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