Pickup truck market analysis and forecast for the first eight months of 2003

In the first eight months of this year, the number of pickups produced and sold in the country exceeded 120,000, showing a relatively strong momentum of development. This is another growth period after 1999. It is expected that the annual output (pure pickup + pickup SUV) will exceed 200,000, and the sales volume (pure pickup + pickup SUV) will also be close to 200,000.

In the first half of 2003, there were 105,136 main pickup trucks (excluding pickup truck SUVs) sold at 105862 vehicles, of which about 5 were pickup truck type SUVs. More than 10,000 vehicles, a total of more than 80% over the same period last year.

In the first eight months of this year, mid-range pickup trucks between 6 and 80,000 yuan are still the main force, with the number of about 80,000 vehicles, accounting for about 80%. In the fourth quarter, this proportion is expected to increase. Among them, economic SUVs account for nearly half of the total sales of pickup trucks. Among the pickup manufacturers, the Great Wall continues to lead in production and sales, and has been ranked first for six consecutive years. Second, ZTE, Jiangling, Nissan, Qingling, Yangzi, and Sunlight have all grown faster.

Since the second half of last year, all pickup truck manufacturers across the country have introduced low-priced multi-function vehicles (SUVs). Such as the Great Wall Saif, Nanjing Yuejin, Shanghai Wanfeng, Yangzi Fu Cong, Shijiazhuang Shuanghuan, Zhongxing Seal, Chiye, Panther Daewoo, Futian Aoling, Dandong Shuguang, Dingxing Xinkai, Nanhai Fudi, Dongguan Hongyuan, etc. Thirty brands have shown great vitality, the market is getting bigger, sales are increasing, and their use is getting wider and wider. The pickup SUV market is getting bigger and bigger. It is precisely because of its variety, variety, and variety of styles that created a large market. Large-scale, medium-sized, small, practical, leisure-oriented, mountain-adapted, urban-adapted, domestic-made, imported, 80,000 yuan, 300,000 yuan or more ... is this huge The group meets the needs of different levels of consumers. The pickup truck market has grown in this kind of personalization and diversification. Especially since the second half of last year, the launch of a large number of economic SUVs has made the market bigger and bigger. With the entry of a large number of pickup companies, China's SUV market has entered an era with a wide range, many varieties, and richer grades. All this has benefited from the "splashes" of economic SUVs introduced by many pickup manufacturers in the second half of last year.

I. Analysis of competition situation of pickup truck enterprises in the first eight months

In the first eight months of 2003 in the overall rapid growth of the automotive market, the production and sales of pickup trucks (including economic SUVs) also showed a very good growth, reflecting the fact that this “edge model” is accelerating to keep up with mainstream automobile models. The pace of development shows that the multi-level and diversified development strategy adopted by Pica is successful. Pickups increase directly due to the continuous launch of cutting-edge products, followed by constant price declines and fierce competition in services, exports, advertising and promotional activities, and further fierce competition in the market, which in turn has promoted the development of the pickup industry.

Judging from the competitive situation this year, under the pressure of external forces, brands have been trying hard to introduce products with reasonable performance and prices, or disguised price reductions and multi-level diversification as their obvious characteristics.

The Baoding Great Wall has updated and launched 20 models of its full range of pickup trucks and SUVs. It has continued to lead the industry with the latest models for maximum production and sales. In the first half of the year, Great Wall lowered the price by 5,000 yuan for each new model, and achieved a good price reduction. Expected market effect. In recent years, the Great Wall pickup has mainly been embodied in the development and promotion of new products. Four SUVs "New Saif" made the first shot. They are: two-wheel drive and four-wheel drive Saifu with a body length of 4.5 meters and a length of 4.7 meters. They are distinctive in the SUV utility vehicle. In addition, the standard double row, double row, double row, one row and a half, single row, and van type pickup trucks of the “Kindil” and “New Sail” are also on the national market, sweeping away the old faces of domestic pickup trucks. . At the same time, two-wheel drive and four-wheel drive gasoline engine and diesel-powered commercial vehicle “Saiying” appeared. This vehicle has three rows of seats and 7 crew members. The rear seat can be installed or disassembled as required, and The function of MPV. The entire series of models of the Great Wall covers not only pickup trucks, SUVs, and passenger cars, but the possibility of involving cars in the next step is unknown.

In the first half of the year, Jiangling Pickup promoted the “oil-saving competition” as the main marketing line and launched activities throughout the country, with the appearance of similar high-grade cars. In the first half of the year, after the "Randair" RV was continued on the basis of the Jiangling pickup truck, Jiangling "Bao Dian" and "Bao Wei" SUV utility vehicles were launched successively, priced at about 110,000 yuan. These phenomena indicate that the pickup manufacturers are trying to explore their own differences and have evolved from the homogenization of past products and prices to multi-level and diversified trends. Jiangling’s four-wheel drive pick-up trucks are more popular in the northeast, southwest and southwest regions, and have maintained a good reputation in the market. At the same time, Landwind SUVs are fully promoted in the country, priced at 15 to 16 million yuan, with a very prominent personality characteristics in the mid-range SUV field.

After ZTE Automobile broke away from Brilliance and changed its property rights, it consolidated its models, reduced the price as its main line, and played a “50,000 yuan pickup truck and 60,000 yuan SUV”, which appeared at the lowest price in the market. At the end of May, the company launched a car called Chino, which is priced at around 80,000 yuan. At present, this car is highly competitive with the Great Wall. At present, ZTE's main varieties are ZTE's flagship, flag, and Tiger's three pickup series, Golden Lion, Seals and other SUV commercial vehicles. Zhongxing Tianye has launched a large amount of advertisements, advertised its activities to cut down prices from RMB 3,000 to RMB 5,000, and launched discounted service activities from March 1 to March 31. Dealers in some regions carried out “buy car air-conditioning” activities; ZTE still In the promotion of its low price advantage, in the advertising hit a "more than 60,000 yuan SUV", "more than 50,000 yuan pickup" slogan, and strive to win in the same industry at a low price. ZTE's commercial vehicles also maintained a good sales performance in the industry and performed well in similar models.

Yangzi pickup promoted “car air-conditioning” activities in some areas such as Hangzhou market, and publicized in these areas that it has passed three high-end tests and discharge standards up to the 2005 level; the Yangtse Wagon has been quietly listed in some markets; Many of them are very interested in their seven-seat wagons. In recent years, the Yangzi pickup has not only grown bigger, but it has also become stronger.

In the season of high temperature throughout the country this year, Olebell Pickup launched the “Purchase Aobell pickup to send home air conditioners” campaign. In the northwestern and southwestern part of the market, advertising was relatively large and the results were good.

The Fukuda pickup "Surf Surf" SUV is striving to produce and sell 10,000 vehicles this year. In order to better develop the market and provide services for various models, Foton will implement a regional agency system this year, and establish a number of finished product transit libraries and parts supply libraries.

New Kaipika: This year, we strongly promoted the "Star of New Kai." Other brands are expected to have big moves next year.

Dongfeng's "Xintianyou" pickup is a high-end product in pickup trucks. It is divided into three types: basic, standard, and luxury. The first-to-market luxury price is RMB 82,800, and the standard model is RMB 76,800. Compared with similar products, Dongfeng "Xintianyou" pickup competitive advantage is cost, Dongfeng "Xintianyou" pickup gasoline engine models used in the United States and Ford's Delphi EQ491 jointly developed EFI engine, which passed the domestic harsh "three high “Experiment (ie “High Altitude” on the Tibetan Plateau, “High Temperature” in Turpan and “High Cold” Experiment in Mohe), with superior dynamic performance, 2.2 litres of displacement, rated power of 68 kilowatts, a top speed of 130 kilometers per hour, and emissions reaching Europe No. II standard, fuel consumption is only 9 liters per 100 kilometers. The gearbox is produced by the Japanese Aisin technology and is at the leading domestic level. In the luxury model, it not only has a central locking system, power windows and doors, power steering and ABS anti-lock braking system, but also equipped with a six-disc car CD, leather seats, and an on-board charging hands-free system, compared with mid-range cars. Not inferior. With product advantages and a large marketing service network of “Dongfeng Motor”, Dongfeng Company “Xintianyou” will soon be able to form a “three pillars” new pattern in the high-end pickup market, and then enter the middle and low pickup market.

The year 2002 saw the largest number of new models emerged in China's pickup history, and 2003 was a consolidation process. The introduction of new pickup trucks will tend to be stable. It is expected that the focus of competition among pickup truck manufacturers will be mainly reflected in three aspects: First, they will be brighter in appearance, highlighting their individualization and fashion; second, they will make efforts in advanced technology, enhance practicality, and increase cost performance. Adding devices without price increase will become the first choice for all manufacturers; Third, the gap will be further widened at the price point, changing the past pickup price from 6 to 70,000 yuan, and the commercial vehicle will be about 8 to 10 yuan, which will provide users with more s Choice.

Second, pure pickup market analysis

In the first eight months of this year, pure pickups increased by about 15%. Without the pickup of Sika-type SUVs, the market share of pickups will increase even more. Because economic SUVs have obvious advantages in many respects compared with pickup trucks, this has partly weakened some of the pickup truck markets. Nevertheless, the general trend of continued growth in the pickup market has not changed. The main factors for its growth are the following:

- The performance, use and price of pickup trucks are destined for development prospects. In recent years, pickup trucks have gradually been recognized and accepted by users. The multifunctional pickup has a wider range of uses. It is more advanced than agricultural vehicles, micro-cargo, and light trucks. It is more casual than a car, and at the same time, it has strong power characteristics. It is suitable for private business owners and family vehicles, and can be used for agricultural and sideline production. Operating and small-scale transportation, can also be used for passenger cars, to enter the city for sale and travel can be used for pickup. The multifunctional, low consumption, reliability, beautiful appearance and ride comfort of pickup trucks have won the favor of more and more users. In special industries such as transportation, public security, power, and communications, pickups have become the dominant model of the Group's procurement with its ability to adapt to different road surfaces. In particular, the mid-range pickups with the largest sales volume of 60,000 to 80,000 yuan have shown a relatively strong momentum of development.

—— The technology of the pickup truck is mature and its variety can be used to replace many models. Over the past few years, more than 30 pickup truck manufacturers in China have experienced fierce market competition and their product technology has matured. The top few pickup brands aim at the international market. After learning, innovation, digestion and absorption, they have already possessed the product technology and development capabilities of the foreign car industry.

—— In terms of environmental protection, domestic pickups have adopted advanced multi-point EFI engines and emission control technologies. Many of the pickups' emissions are not only in line with national standards, but also meet Euro II or Euro III standards. At the same time, agricultural vehicles produced during the peak period of more than ten years ago will be phased out and eliminated in recent years; in particular, the next upgrade of flat-headed microfabrication and micro-fabrication users will bring an opportunity for pickups; in addition, medium and low-end pickup trucks will be used in international The market is a blank, so its opportunities outweigh the challenges.

—— Changes in the concept of users have strongly promoted the sales of pickup trucks. In small and medium-sized towns, urban-rural areas, and rural areas, pickup trucks are increasingly favored by consumers. These provide a vast space for pickup trucks.

- In line with international standards, the policy is further relaxed. Measuring the performance of China's automobiles in accordance with internationally unified emission, certification, and statistical standards is also conducive to vehicle management in the transportation sector. In this way, the name of the pickup is given in theory, and the "pickup limit" also loses its theoretical basis. This type of pickup is inevitably developing in line with international standards. Like the car, it will receive equal and fair treatment in accordance with the unified national environmental protection and safety standards. The internationally popular pickup truck will inevitably forcefully launch the pickup market that is subject to discrimination in China; it will force local governments to change their discriminatory policies and be in line with international standards. Pickups will have a broader development prospect.

Third, pickup new SUV fight market, overcapacity has become a fact

Under the premise that China's auto market has been optimistic for the past few years, the pickup-type SUV has become the hottest new star since the second half of last year and this year. It has ushered in the second peak in the history of domestic pickups. This year has become the first year of SUVs. . The new models are springing up like bamboo shoots. The high-, medium- and low-end, nearly 30 new models of SUVs fought in the market and grabbed the thunder of the auto market. However, the hot-selling SUV will face the following problems:

1. Overcapacity and fierce competition

More than 30 new SUVs have been added, and mainstream car companies have also been referring to the SUV. This market can be described as full of energy and endless. However, it should be clearly seen that although SUVs have been developed in China for a short period of time, the market share is not optimistic and the market share is only 2-3%. In 2002, the sales volume of all SUVs reached 100,000. This year, the output of automobile manufacturers has exceeded 300,000 vehicles, but according to the trend of SUV sales this year, the annual sales of the SUV market will not exceed 200,000 vehicles. Therefore, the SUV's ability to reach 300,000 units is simply a huge waste. The SUV's supply and demand are seriously out of balance, which has laid a stance for the market competition in the next year.

2. Segmentation market continues to deepen

3. Cutting-edge products continue to be launched, and investment and joint ventures are being launched

4. Customers pay more attention to price, service, quality and appearance when purchasing pickups and SUVs.

5. Domestic pickup export potential is huge

Pickup trucks that are popular in the international market have not been given the necessary popularity in our country. However, they can display their skills overseas, especially mid-range pick-ups, which have become a major feature of China. Currently, the pickup trucks in developed countries have excellent performance and high price, and they do not produce pickup trucks of such prices. However, similar pickup trucks produced in developing countries are far inferior in quality and quality to our country, in the Middle East, North Africa, West Asia, and other countries. The demand is very large, which has brought opportunities for the export of low-grade pick-up trucks in China. The comprehensive advantages of Chinese pickup trucks are greater than those of imported pickup trucks. Its main basis is: product technology is not inferior. Over the past few years, more than 30 pickup truck manufacturers in China have experienced fierce market competition and their product technology has matured. Domestic pickup companies are aiming at the international market and have learned and innovated through digestion and absorption. They already have the same management models, marketing concepts, product technologies and development capabilities as foreign countries. At present, new domestic pickup products continue to be more and more high-end equipment, its configuration can be comparable with the car. In the past, Chinese pickup trucks were mostly double-seat single-seater models. Nowadays, four- and four-by-two drive models, vans, etc. have been developed in a row of half-seat, single-seat, cargo-carrying, and wheelbases. Variety, several internationally-recognized models, such as Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan Nissan, and general-purpose, are all available in domestic pickups, and the gap with developed countries is getting smaller and smaller. The second is the absolute price advantage. At present or in a few years, the comprehensive price/performance ratio of Chinese pickup trucks is better than that of imported pickup trucks. Taking the Great Wall pickup that currently exports international markets as an example, the standard double-deck pickup with a domestic sale price of 55,800 yuan is exported to the Middle East at a price of US$6,100, equivalent to more than RMB58,000, and each export vehicle is even higher than China. More than 2200 yuan. The import tariffs in the Middle East are relatively low. A large number of foreign pickup brands are influxed. Toyota pickups sell at the same price in the Middle East market for 14,000 US dollars. While the price of Chinese pickups is less than 1/2 of them, the comprehensive price-performance ratio has been favored by ordinary foreign users.

6. Domestic pickup trucks can compete with imported pickup trucks

7. The competitive differentiation of pickup products is becoming increasingly fierce

8. Public security, political science and law, industry and commerce, highways, telecommunications, petroleum, geology, telecommunications, quality supervision and other special industries and law enforcement departments have become new highlights of pickup sales

9. Comparing with the same amount of bread, micro guest and micro goods

10. The conditions for pickups to replace agricultural vehicles have matured

a. The failure of agricultural vehicles to meet the standards is a fatal weakness of agricultural vehicles. However, it is not easy to raise emission standards in the short term to meet environmental protection requirements. In the meantime, there must be market vacancies. b The price is also the weakness of agricultural vehicles. Because most agricultural vehicles do not have a sufficient economic scale, there is little room for price reductions. As the pickups and SUVs have gradually become economically priced, their prices have been almost equal to the prices of agricultural vehicles. Less than 50,000 yuan pickups and less than 60,000 SUVs have already been born. This price is very close to that of agricultural vehicles. With the development of rural economy, improvement of farmers' living standards and changes in consumption concepts, farmers will need more comfortable and safe means of transport. Pickup trucks and SUVs will also have the function of transporting goods to other vehicles. As a passenger vehicle for transportation and transportation, good sealing performance, flexible driving performance, comfortable driving environment and higher safety are all beyond the reach of agricultural vehicles. d The agricultural vehicle service system is mostly imperfect, and the larger pickups and SUVs have basically formed a relatively mature maintenance and service network all over the country, and they are still continuing to improve and expand. This is not something that agricultural vehicles can do. Under such circumstances, the huge market space for agricultural vehicles will inevitably be split between pickup trucks and SUVs. e The adjustment of agricultural structure and the upgrading of a large number of agricultural vehicles will further expand the pickup market. Pickup manufacturers have switched their heads and pulled out a new road for “urban and rural common use”.

Pickup companies should focus on the development of models suitable for rural use. There should be a 4×4 drive model for use in the field, preferably with a diesel engine. In addition, different sizes of tires and warm air are available for users to choose. More importantly, they are economical. They are reliable, durable, and low in price. They can be accepted by the majority of farmers, making it a preferred model for peasants to purchase cars as soon as possible, and truly enter peasant families.

Fourth, the pickup truck market forecast in 2003

The pickup market has entered an expansion period. In the United States, pickup trucks account for 20% of the total vehicle sales. In Thailand, pickup trucks account for 72% of the total vehicle sales. In China, last year, pickup trucks sold only 90,000 vehicles, which is less than 50% of the total vehicle sales. %. This shows that the Chinese pickup market has great potential, and facts have proved this. In the past two years, the market demand for domestic light trucks, minivans, agricultural vehicles, etc. has grown slowly, and pickup trucks in this market corresponding to this have grown rapidly, becoming the products with better growth and attractiveness in the automotive industry. According to optimistic forecasts, in the next five years, the pickup market share will expand 1 to 2 times, accounting for 10% of the entire car sales. The reasons for its judgment are based on two reasons: First, the policy environment will gradually loosen, and the prohibition policy on pickup trucks may be gradually eliminated. The current traces of loosening are obvious; the second is the need for the upgrading of user products. In recent years, domestic The annual sales of agricultural vehicles range from 2 million to 3 million, of which 500,000 are four-wheeled agricultural vehicles. With the increase in income, a considerable part of these people will gradually be transformed into economic pickup users.

It is expected that the output of pickup trucks (including pickup truck SUVs) will exceed 200,000 units for the whole year, and the sales volume will also be close to 200,000 vehicles. Among them, the production of pure pickup trucks will reach more than 150,000 vehicles.

Because the so-called SUVs made in China's low-end and mid-range are basically derived from the variants of pickup trucks, these SUVs are inextricably linked with pickup trucks. There is not only a "blood" in the physical performance ratio, but also in the statistics of production and sales. You have me, I have you, and it is difficult to distinguish and give up. This situation has been caused by the fact that for a long time the pick-up truck manufacturers have caused a mess, no mutual exchanges and competitive transitions, and so far there have been no signs of change. Therefore, from the national-level statistics or some industry information, it is impossible to determine the production and sales data of sub-models of the national pickup truck manufacturers.

(Editor's note: The full text is deleted.)