In 2015, the Asian chemical industry will face the old problems such as lack of resources and decentralization of the industry. At the same time, it will also withstand the test of China's economic slowdown. However, oil prices may remain low in 2015, and a series of plans or reforms in Asian countries may bring about a period of uncertainty for the Asian chemical industry. Therefore, analysts believe that the Asian chemical industry will see moderate growth in 2015, and in the foreseeable future, Asia will continue to maintain its position as a global growth center for demand for chemical products.
Although the growth rate is slowing, the space is still huge
In recent years, Asia has been the main force driving global chemical demand. Although China's economic growth rate for large-scale buyers of chemical products exported to Asia in Asia in 2015 is expected to slow down, China's chemical industry still maintains a relatively high growth rate. Some multinational companies are still optimistic about the development prospects of the Asian chemical industry.
The IHS stated that China’s economy is being supported by some government-led micro-stimulus programs and export recovery, and there will be no significant decline. The world's leading chemical companies that have invested a lot of money in China firmly believe that the demand in the Chinese market will remain strong. Hou Yuzhe, president of BASF Asia Pacific and president and chairman of Greater China, said that China will continue to be the fastest growing economy in the world's major economies, and GDP growth will still exceed 7%, and this growth rate will have a base of 5 It was much larger years ago and it still has a very big attraction for BASF. The company will continue to increase its investment in Asia. By 2020, it plans to invest 10 billion euros in Asian countries such as China to increase its R&D level and expand its production capacity.
In its report on the 2015 World Economic Situation and Prospects released on December 10, 2014, the United Nations pointed out that the Asian economy will continue to lead the global economic growth and it is expected that the economic growth rates in 2015 and 2016 will be 6.1% and 6.0% respectively. While the Chinese economy is entering a new normal and growing steadily, other Asian countries such as India, Bangladesh and Iran will experience strong economic growth. The rapid economic growth in Asia has provided a large space for the development of the chemical industry in the region.
Tony Porter, vice president of Asia Pacific operations at IHS Chemicals, said that in the foreseeable future, most of the world’s new olefin production capacity will still occur in Asia. The Asian region has 3.9 billion potential chemical and polymer consumers, accounting for 55% of the global consumer population. The American IHS Company believes that Asia will remain the global leader in the production of petrochemical products from 2014 to 2020.
Oil prices are falling and reforms have dividends
The sharp drop in oil prices has led China, Japan, India, Indonesia and other major oil-consuming countries to reap long-lost dividends. However, the profits of modern coal chemical and biofuels are being squeezed. However, Swiss Baosheng analysts said that the recent drop in oil prices is beneficial to the economies of all Asian countries, enabling governments to apply existing fuel subsidies to areas that are more productive, such as education and infrastructure, to further promote the economy. Long-term development.
The analyst believes that in 2015, Asia will continue to benefit from the favorable investment situation. Due to the long-term high correlation between Asia and the European and US markets, the major national central banks have maintained relatively loose monetary policies and reasonable valuation levels. Thanks to the multiple reform measures adopted, China and India will both become the best performing economies in Asia. At the same time, Japan’s performance is also expected to benefit from the local quantitative easing policy and the readjustment of pension asset allocation.
As a global economic locomotive, China is currently at a critical point in the transition to the new normal. The concept of “One Belt and One Road†put forward by China in 2013 is entering a pragmatic stage and has received positive responses and participation from more than 50 countries along the route. Some people in the industry said that despite the work, it is necessary to break through communication barriers, road barriers, institutional barriers, and human-made obstacles. However, it is undeniable that the implementation of this vision will definitely bring new opportunities to the prosperity of Asia as a whole. While stimulating economic development, the Asian chemical industry will be promoted to improve its small and scattered appearance. In addition, the reforms in emerging market countries such as India and Indonesia will also bring more development opportunities to the petroleum and chemical industries in these countries.
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